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How To Tell a Good Forecast from a Bad One

March 5, 2009
Here’s a forecast for you. Clear and direct. As quoted by a Reuters reporter in his January 15, 2009, article, entitled, “Global Lending Thaw May Yet Return to Deep Freeze.”
“‘This is a temporary respite and when it’s over, the stock market will make new lows…,’ says Robert Prechter, chief executive officer at research [...]

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Market Overview – August 8th, 2008

In my last Market update I talked about how I thought we would at least trade up close to the 12,000 area before continuing lower. Friday’s big move confirmed my outlook as the Dow closed above the prior swing high that was set in mid-July, which was also coincidently the 38% retracement. I think there’s [...]

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Market Overview – July 31st, 2008

It’s been a few weeks since I did a market update post. I apologize but it’s been a busy summer. If you’ve been following things the last week or so it’s been a crazy volatile market. Up big one day, down big the next.
If you look on the chart below, the rally that started on [...]

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Market Overview – July 11th, 2008

I want to point out something I brought up in the last post and may prove valuable this week. Notice the horizontal trendline around the 11,000 level in the Dow. This area acted as resistance in ‘99-01 then again in ‘04-05 before it was finally broken and provided some support in ‘06. Given the the [...]

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Barf! Market Overview – June 26th, 2008

The markets tossed their cookies today, the big three all down around 3% or more. My call last week was that the market (DIA) may pause just long enough to allow the 8-day moving average to catch up, and it did just that before falling off the cliff. Quite honestly I wasn’t expecting anything that [...]

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Market Overview – June 20th, 2008

What a week! The DIA was down almost $5 this week which equates to about a 500 point fall in the Dow. If you read the headlines the media will try to say it’s the price of oil or the credit crunch that drove the each day, but really it’s all in the charts. Sure [...]

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Market Overview – June 18th, 2008

Today marked another day of selling in the market, with the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P all down around 1%. After gapping down at the open the Qs stayed in a range for most of the day between the open at 48.30 and the low around 47.90. Last Wednesday we mentioned that the Qs may be [...]

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